早 在偶注意到這個(gè)問題之前，國外已有大牛就此類問題精辟論述過了。總結(jié)下來，四個(gè)字：驚世騙局。大白話的講，那就是：If you can't touch it, you don't own it.部分準(zhǔn)備金制度的又一次超級(jí)障眼法應(yīng)用。舉例來說，貨幣戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)3里面把這種游戲比喻成1個(gè)瓶蓋和100個(gè)瓶子的游戲，偶前面的文章將之比喻為音樂椅游 戲。

但這些比喻，顯然過于簡(jiǎn)單，過于低估了那些銀行家們的"智慧"。

下 面，是在上輪黃金熊市末期獨(dú)具慧眼的Another和他的朋友(Friend Of Another, FOA 以及Friend Of Another Of Another, FOFOA)他們?cè)诋?dāng)時(shí)幾乎是全球唯一的黃金論壇(kitco gold forum?)以及隨后的blogspot中論述的內(nèi)容

Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 19:18 
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

Mr. Sharfin, I thank you for saving my posts. Now I ask you?

Please read these words and consider:

" What Is The Real Price Of Gold IN The Central Bank World?"

If we look back thru the writings of Another, we find an old post that says something to this effect, "You think I am a fool because I trade gold for thousands US$ an ounce". It was a strange statement, but stranger still that no one asked about this. In the very beginning of these "THOUGHTS", the point was offered that gold had increased "dramatically in value these past few years"! This thinking was offered, even as it's currency price was falling to new many year lows. I ask about it today, especially in light of the post of :

"Date: Fri Apr 17 1998 17:11
Aragorn III ( Some thoughts for A.Goose in regard to COMEX and G*O*L*D ) ID#212323"

It is indeed, a paper game Mr. Aragorn, but it is a game of "some advantage", if one can see clearly. The one that posts using SDRer, has shown many times how "Gold Value" is used in international trade. What cannot be seen is the value of gold in the "INTERBANK" world. Here is the realm of "true valuations" in paper currency terms. It is a real shocker for lesser eyes.

In this modern world, the current value of every asset is formed by a relationship of gold/currencies/oil. This cross relationship is the "very basis of our modern world banking system"!

Through this basis, all currencies are given value as the local government treasuries hold US$ as reserves. The US$ is given backing as it's government is guaranteed, that all crude oil, worldwide, will be settled in dollars. An oil reserve backing, if you will. And, the "value" that the "future supply of "currency traded "oil" imparts to the world economy, is guaranteed by an "INTERBANK paper gold MARKET" that values "physical bullion" in the Thousands!

I'll let Another explain:

But, how can this be, you ask? It is done, "right before your eyes" and we see it not! I ask you, if you have one ounce of gold, and sell it on the market for $300, it is worth $300, yes? Now, what if CB hold one ounce of gold, and sell it twenty times, that one ounce is now worth $6,000, no? The difference between you and CB? The persons that hold "interbank" IOU for gold, value it at the multiple of leases/sales made against reserves. This leverage, it is held for performance on bank part. The BIS, it force performance, on any economy! You ask Korea about gold, yes?

This is why oil can take a small amount of physical gold out of world supply, at current "freely traded", "managed prices", and hold it at a many times valuation. That is what gives this "new world gold market" much value in trade at high levels. Look even at your "Comex", and divide the daily volume by the "eligible stocks for delivery". That number ( perhaps three million ounces divided by 150,000 stocks, deliverable, times the spot close gives close, real world price of physical, $6,000. It follows close to paper trade on LBMA.

You see, "physical gold is of much greater value than public traders can move it for"! In your world, this cannot be, but it is, and will show for all to see in your time.

Gold is now being managed back to the $320 - $360 range. But, this few dollars of value is of little use, as forces are at work that will break $360! The CBs are loosing control. I write again in hour or so. We talk then, please.

Thank you

這是Another在98年4月所寫，當(dāng)時(shí)的金價(jià)在300美元1盎司左右。他自問道："在中央銀行家的眼里，實(shí)物黃金到底值多少呢？"

初步結(jié)論是6000美元1盎司，注意，這還是1998年，那時(shí)我們有著超過100的美元指數(shù)。

原 因何在？部分準(zhǔn)備金制度而已。在擁有1盎司實(shí)物黃金的情況下，中央銀行家可以賣出大概20盎司的紙面合約（考慮到一般多頭的實(shí)物交割率，1:20是比較安 全的狀況）。當(dāng)然，中央銀行家也必須支付賣出合約的保證金要求。但很明顯，那些用紙幣乃至于電子貨幣支付的保證金要求，對(duì)于中央銀行家的印鈔機(jī)來說，根本 不算什么。所以大致的比例是20倍。

不過，你可不要指望你能將你手頭的黃金以20倍的市面價(jià)賣給他們。這里說的價(jià)格，是中央銀行之間的實(shí)物黃金市場(chǎng)價(jià)格。類似ECB賣給fed實(shí)物黃金的價(jià)格,因?yàn)橘I家和賣家都可以以1:20的比例用實(shí)物黃金部分支撐那些裸空頭合約，進(jìn)而獲得收益.

可是中央銀行們不會(huì)去市場(chǎng)上買便宜得多的貨嗎？這個(gè)問題，F(xiàn)OFOA在2010年5月歐債危機(jī)鬧得最兇的時(shí)候給出了答案。

原 來，全球黃金市場(chǎng)，是一個(gè)雙層3間的市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)。雙層中的下層，有2間，分為實(shí)物黃金市場(chǎng)和紙面黃金市場(chǎng)。你去任何一家金店買金條金幣甚至金首飾，都屬于前 者。后者，包括林林總總的倫敦金，現(xiàn)貨黃金，T+D，黃金期貨，紙黃金，黃金理財(cái)產(chǎn)品，黃金ETF，黃金存折，甚至包括黃金股票等等。一般來說，因?yàn)榍罢?的成交量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于后者，所以前者的價(jià)格一般為后者馬首是瞻。君不見，各大黃金店都掛有國際金價(jià)的電子顯示屏嗎？那就是實(shí)物黃金市場(chǎng)對(duì)紙面黃金市場(chǎng)的一種臣 服的表現(xiàn)。當(dāng)然，前者少許的加工費(fèi)手續(xù)費(fèi)還是免不了的。

那雙層中的上層呢？很自然，只有1間屋子， 那就是央行間的黃金市場(chǎng)，很自然全是實(shí)物黃金的交易，因?yàn)楦鲊�央行的人都清楚紙面黃金的把戲也都明白實(shí)物黃金和紙幣的比例。這個(gè)市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格，如 Another所說，是下層價(jià)格的數(shù)十倍，原因除了可以依靠部分準(zhǔn)備金的玩法變出更多的紙面合約外，這個(gè)市場(chǎng)實(shí)際上是現(xiàn)今唯一有能力提供短期大規(guī)模(上百 噸甚至更多)實(shí)物交割的地方。這點(diǎn)，F(xiàn)OFOA在他的博客里這樣寫道：